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Diesels to Take on Hybrids as King of Green |
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Written by Cameron Little
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Tuesday, 27 September 2005 |
from Reuters News Service and Planet Ark...
Reuters Summit - Diesels to
Take on Hybrids as King of
Green
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USA:
September 26, 2005
DETROIT - Record-high prices at US pumps are
giving hybrid cars a further image boost as the king of fuel economy, but
many automakers are stepping up work on another major alternative to cut fuel
consumption: diesel engines.
Long seen as a powerful but smog-forming
drivetrain reserved for big trucks and buses, diesels are slowly gaining
legitimacy in the world's biggest car market, where many Americans drive
large sport utility vehicles and pickup
trucks for personal use. "Diesel
is a no-brainer for pickup trucks -- they're bullet proof, run forever and
get great mileage," said Thad Malesh, principal of California-based research
firm Automotive Technologies Research Group. "It
will be a market
requirement."
Homegrown brands like Ford Motor Co. are especially keen on
the technology, hoping to gain a competitive edge over Japan's Toyota Motor
Corp. and Honda Motor Co., which are behind in diesels but are winning market
share in the United States with popular hybrid offerings.
To be sure,
all automakers are developing and improving hybrid technology as well as
other fuel-saving options like cars that run on ethanol. Ford this week
unveiled plans for a tenfold jump in hybrid output by 2010.
But diesels
are touted as a proven technology with high torque, towing power and
durability, and as being more suited than others for hauling
and long-distance driving.
"I think diesels could offer North America
a very significant benefit in improving fuel efficiency and reducing
greenhouse gas emissions," Ford Chief Operating Officer Jim Padilla said at
the Reuters Autos Summit this week.
He said Ford was preparing to add
more products to its diesel line-up, which includes versions of its popular
F-series pickups.
GOOD PERFORMANCE, BAD IMAGE
Diesels get 20
percent to 40 percent better fuel economy than gasoline vehicles and account
for more than half of Europe's car market.
But they have failed to gain
traction in markets like the United States and Japan, where diesels suffer
from a poor image due to the higher emissions of pollutants such as nitrogen
dioxide and particulate matter, or soot.
Still, with the United States'
introduction of stricter sulfur-content and emissions standards by 2010,
experts say diesels could be a sound ecological choice, given the low levels
of carbon dioxide emissions linked to global warming.
Proponents also
note that diesels cost less to produce than hybrids -- about 1.15 times that
of a conventional gasoline car versus 1.25 times for gasoline-electric
hybrids, according to Tokyo-based Yano Research Institute.
Hybrids require
more parts, including a battery to capture lost energy while braking, and an
electric motor that the battery feeds.
And while hybrids can
theoretically get better mileage, they need stop-and-go driving for maximum
efficiency, meaning someone used to cruising on highways is better off with a
diesel.
That's a big market in the United States, where drivers travel an
average 18,870 km (11,730 miles) a year -- nearly double the distance in
Japan and far more than 12,600 km in diesel-smitten Germany, according to
official Japanese data.
Hybrids also have a relatively short battery
life -- Toyota has an 8-year warranty on theirs -- raising questions over net
financial gain if drivers were to spend an estimated few thousand dollars for
the component every decade, on top of the thousands in premium already paid
for a hybrid system.
"There's potential for diesel," said Jeff Schuster,
auto analyst at J.D. Power. The consultancy expects diesel penetration on
passenger vehicles to roughly double to 7 percent of 8 percent by 2010,
compared with 3.5 percent
for hybrids, up from 1.3 percent expected this
year.
TOUGH HURDLES
Like Ford, DaimlerChrysler AG and other
automakers with European ties said they saw a bright future for
diesels.
"We definitely have plans for diesels with full-sized trucks and
SUVs," said Jed Connelly, senior vice president of North American sales at
Nissan Motor Co., which shares various technologies with France's Renault
SA.
But laggards such as Toyota and General Motors Corp. argue that
upcoming US regulations for nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter would
require too much spending on research and development.
US standards
for 2007 will be far more stringent than those in Europe today and will be
even tougher by the end of the decade, to levels that John Smith, GM's vice
president of global product planning, characterized as "almost
ridiculous."
"They have a standard out there for nitrogen oxides in 2010
which is five to six times stiffer than in Europe in the same time frame,"
Smith said.
"The cost of doing it would make the cost of a diesel vehicle
prohibitive," he said, adding that diesel passenger vehicles had a slim
chance under those standards.
Toyota, which wants to see hybrids take
off to earn back the huge outlays already spent, agreed that costs would be
an issue.
"With diesel, you have to add fairly expensive traps and
filters and systems, so it's not as clear or simple to say one is better than
the other," said Jim Press, head of Toyota's US operations.
But he
didn't rule out a future for diesels, saying they would probably co-exist
with hybrids.
"I think eventually there will be a combination of
technologies and matrix," he said. "Diesel hybrids are a possibility in the
future."
Story by Chang-Ran Kim
REUTERS NEWS
SERVICE
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